Steven Shaman is a bio-science journalist who has published numerous environmental news articles for media syndication and is currently producing and hosting alternative radio programs on the Blog Talk Radio Network.
Some pundits and political commentators are now suggesting that Obama looked like a 'Sore loser' the other evening after his landslide loss to Hillary in West Virginia.
Many news agencies expected Obama to at least make a short speech to congratulate Hillary and to emphasize the need for unity in the party. Instead he couldn't be bothered, pretending as if West Virginia didn't exist, of which West Virginians responded in kind to his lackluster consideration.
A national leader would have taken to the stage and spoken not only to West Virginia but to the entire nation about unity and vision, instead of pouting in silence over his humiliating loss.
Although it might have been seen as understandable that he downplay the importance of WV in lieu of the lopsided results, he could have taken the free airtime to talk about the upcoming states. Along with his decision to end all debates with Hillary, it almost seems as though Obama is tired of national attention, very strange for someone who wants to run for President.
Will Obama once again act like a 'sore loser' after his trouncing in Kentucky on May 20, and Puerto Rico on June 1? If West Virginia is any indication, then expect Obama to display another round of dismay and treating Kentucky as if it doesn't exist.
Now I have never been a fan of Karl Rove, who is now an analyst for Fox News, but he makes some very credible comments about Barack Obama regarding his weaknesses and character. It is no wonder why superdelegates are still sitting on the fence, many have some serious reservations about Obama.
After her overwhelming victory in West Virginia in which she made Obama look like a rookie, instead of a "presumptive nominee," Clinton is poised once again to thump Barack Obama in another Appalachian Primary.
Hillary to trounce Obama in Kentucky
The lastest polls from Kentucky indicate she will repeat the landslide victory she enjoyed in the neighboring state of West Virginia, despite the Edwards endorsement for Obama which was expected anyway. With 1.6 million voters expected to go to the polls, it is looking like another big popular vote night for Clinton. She is well on her way to winning the overall popular vote, and is expected to overtake Obama after the Puerto Rico primary is counted.
Kentucky is Clinton Country
Hillary has also received the endorsements of four of Kentucky's former Governors as well as hundreds of state and local officials, her campaign has reported today. Despite the insistence by both the media and Obama supporters that "it's over for Clinton", she continues to receive important endorsements from across the nation. Therefore, in retrospect this campaign is not "over" until it is "over" which won't be until June 3 as far as Hillary is concerned.
Kentucky Endorses Clinton
Keep a close eye on what happens on May 31 in Washington D.C. when the bylaws committee convenes to decide the fate of the delegates and votes in Michigan and Florida. We may in fact be very surprised by the decision of that committee, one that the Obama folks may find very disheartening. Word has it that the Clinton campaign has enough votes on that committee to seat all delegates and count all votes. In which case things will look much different since the delegate tally will be 2209 and not 2026.
That brings us to the reasons that the media has published as to why Clinton should get out. They are not worth the paper they are printed on. Rather the media should examine their infactuation with Obama and look at the numbers that really matter come November.
1) "BEHIND IN PLEDGES DELEGATES AND THE MATH IS UNFAVORABLE"
Her opponent's lead in pledged delegates is slim and he can't win without super-delegates, but they think she should get out of the race. I seem to recall that the superdelegates and/or pledged delegates are free to change their minds or switch candidates at any time or for any reason, and there are many supers sitting on the fence until after June 3.
2) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE STATES"
Well that is true except for the fact that many of those states are Republican strongholds and several were caucus states and we know how they vote. Say we give Obama Oregon, SD and Montana, and give Hillary Kentucky according to what is expected in those primaries, and let's list them for our entertainment.
OBAMA STATES(30)
Alaska
Idaho
Utah
North Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Colorado
Wyoming
Hawaii
Minnesota
Wisconsin
Missouri
Iowa
Louisiana
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Virginia
Illinois
Maryland
Delaware
Connecticut
Maine
Vermont
Washington
Oregon
South Dakota
Montana
CLINTON STATES(20)
California
Nevada
Arizona
New Mexico
Texas
Arkansas
Tennessee
Michigan
Ohio
Indiana
Pennsylvania
West Virginia
Rhode Island
New Jersey
New York
Massachusetts
New Hampshire
Oklahoma
Florida
Kentucky
NOTE: Of the 30 states that Obama has or is projected to win, (15) are Deep Red states that will vote for McCain in November for a total of 96 electoral votes. (11) are Deep Blue states for a total of 92 electoral votes including DC. Only (4) are considered Swing States, that being Colorado,Virginia,Iowa,and Missouri, for a total of 39 electoral votes. So you can see for yourself, that even if Obama were to win all of those primary or caucus states in the GE, if would still only add up to 227 electoral votes.
NOTE: Of the 20 states that Clinton has or is projected to win, only (6) are Deep Red states that would vote for McCain in November for a total of 79 Electoral votes. (5) are Deep Blue states for a total of 118 electoral votes. (9) are considered as swing states, that being, Nevada, New Mexico, Arkansas, West Virginia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Michigan and Florida for a total of 111 electoral votes. Of the primary states that Clinton has won she would have enough electoral votes to win the general election or a total of 308 electoral votes.
Therefore, Clinton has a very strong argument to make regarding the swing states she has won in crucial areas of the country as compared to the few swing states he has won. Hillary Clinton has won primaries in the large Democratic base states of New York, Massachusetts, New Jersey, California, Ohio and Pennsylvania, all industrial states with large numbers of electoral votes that a Democrat must win in November. Obama's argument that he has won more states means very little when you compare apples to oranges.
3) "OBAMA HAS WON MORE POPULAR VOTES"
This is true so far in this election, but Clinton is projected to catch up and overtake Obama after the Primary season wraps up on June 3. Clinton may surpass her opponent in popular votes, but they say she should get out. Democrats in Michigan and Florida, two states key to victory in November and strongly in Clinton's column, did not have any chance to express their will, and still people call for her to get out.
4) "CLINTON ISN'T CONNECTING WITH BLACK VOTERS"
Maybe so, but still her opponent's supporters and many in the media think she should get out of the race even though she consistently wins among women, Catholics, seniors, Hispanics and blue-collar voters, all key elements of the Democratic coalition.
5) "OBAMA IS GAINING MORE SUPERDELEGATES"
The endorsements that Obama has received since Clinton's big win in Pennsylvania, were superdelegates that for all practical purposes were planning to endorse Obama from the beginning and came as no surprise. Still there are many more waiting on the sidelines. Will there be a June surprise? I might note that even in Indiana, where Clinton carried 83 of 92 counties, U.S. Rep. Baron Hill endorsed her opponent while she carried every county in his district except one.
Looking at the real numbers, maybe it is Obama that should get out of the race. Clinton will certainly be the stronger opponent against McCain in November.
PLEASE READ MY DIARY FROM MAY 14
Hillary Clinton's overwhelming victory in West Virginia on Tuesday night, brings to light the significant problems that Barack Obama has with White Working Class and rural voters, not just in West Virginia, but across America in general.There are many questions still unanswered by the Obama campaign as to why their candidate cannot close the deal on this nomination process. How can a "presumptive nominee" for all intents and purposes lose a primary in a major swing state by a humiliating 41%, and then boast about his prospects for winning a general election during a poorly worded speech in a conservative Missouri southeastern district on the eve of Clinton's smashing victory in West Virginia.
Obama in Missouri
There are many more questions that must be disturbing not only to voters but also to the superdelegates that will ultimately determine the nomination for either candidate. For instance, why can't Barack Obama connect with White working class individuals, especially Blue-Collar voters in those important swing states that any candidate would need in order to capture the White House. If Obama has any hope of winning over those voters than he will have to do a much better job of convincing them that he has their best interests at heart and will work hard for them every day.
Then there is the question of the demographics that make up particular regions of the country, especially in those all important rust belt states or swing states that could very well determine who our next president will be. Obama has a big problem with rural voters, possibly due to their distrust for an unknown candidate, but also because his recent comments towards "small-town" rural Americans were insulting, especially to those rural farming communities who "cling to guns" or attend church on a regular basis.
What the Exit Polls Say
Furthermore, Obama should be worried when exit polling is showing as it did recently in Pa, Indiana and West Virgina, that nearly 60% of Clinton's supporters will not vote for Obama in the Fall election, either voting for McCain or choosing to stay home on election day. Certainly these are troubling numbers for any candidate that will need their support in order to win on November 4th. Although some pundits and analysts will say that many of those defectors will come back to roost in the nest after the Democratic convention in late August, it is still discerning to consider the possibility that many will choose other options.
A Clear Rift in the Party
There is also the continued problem that exists with Rev.Wright. Early exit polling in West Virginia indicates that the controversial remarks made by Wright are still a factor for the Obama campaign. It is certain to be a continued factor raised by Republicans in the upcoming general election if Obama becomes the nominee.
Wright and Race are an Issue
It is now conceivable if not highly probable that Clinton will win the popular vote after the final tally is counted on June 3. Having erased most if not all of Obama's gains from the North Carolina primary in last evening's contest, she will now begin gaining on his overall popular vote margin, and will likely overtake his lead after the Puerto Rico Primary is completed. The Island primary which is scheduled for June 1, is reported to have more than 2.3 million registerd voters with at least 80% of those voters predicted to go to the polls. Clinton is favored to win that primary by a comfortable margin due to its overwhelming Hispanic and Catholic demographics, as well as Clinton's support among Puerto Ricans which make up a sizable voting block in New York. Hillary could very well come away with more than 500,000 more votes than Obama when all is said and done in that primary.
Why Puerto Rico Matters
Popular Vote Leads Directly to the Superdelegates
If Clinton should win the popular vote, and it now looks as if she will(exluding Michigan and/or Florida) it will be another valuable argument she can make to the superdelegates and party officials who are sitting on the fence until after June 3.
Clinton's confidence is showing despite the media thrashing she endured over the past week, and the calls for her to quit. Her thumping of Obama in West Virginia indicates her strenghts and his weaknesses. Voters have sent a loud and clear statement that they want this race to continue and for every vote to be counted. Last nights primary results sent a message to the Obama campaign, as well as to their supporters, and especially the political pundits that it it very unwise to attack Clinton and denigrate her campaign, that it can cause voter backlash, as was evident in West Virginia.
Clinton's continued persistence in spite of the odds to remain in the race, have overshadowed many of the gains made by the Obama campaign. She may be considered by some to be a thorn in Obama's side at this late juncture, but to many she is the candidate best poised to propel Obama into the White House. Without her help, his prospects are dim. To believe otherwise would be foolish and condescending.
It is safe to say that no candidate has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916, and the last Democrat to win that state not once but twice, was Bill Clinton. Hillary is by far the strongest candidate to go up against McCain not only in this region of the country, but in all of rural America.
So Goes West Virginia, So Goes The Nation
Next stop is Kentucky where Obama will face the same humiliation that he witnessed in West Virginia, which has to be embarrassing for the man who claims the label of "presumptive nominee." The candidate claiming the mantle of victory one week, but knocked down the next week in a major landslide, must explain himself to the American electorate. Obama if he expects to be the nominee which is still not his to claim, must act and demonstrate that he can win, even when the going gets tough. His lackluster performance in West Virginia and his willingness to write off a swing state as though it doesn't matter will only come back to haunt him in the end.
Kentucky, Another Clinton Landslide
Obama must soon come to a realization that the votes of all citizens are important if he hopes to win in November, and to overlook the wishes of those who don't support him can only lead to more trouble for him in his quest to be president. Being overconfident at this point in time, could cause a reversal of fortunes for the Obama campaign as the stakes are high and the road remains long and burdensome.
Over a dozen members of congress from Swing States have come out in support of Hillary Clinton. The letter of endorsement written to other Democrats includes the following names:
We Democrats are justifiably proud of both of our candidates, and if Senator Obama is our Party's nominee, we will enthusiastically support him. But our responsibility is not to choose simply to support the eventual nominee; it is to help select the nominee who is best for our party and best for our country. Our choice is clear: Hillary Clinton is that candidate. We believe she should be your choice as well.
Thank you for consideration.
Sincerely,
Rep. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
Rep. Shelley Berkley (NV-01)
Rep. Marion Berry (AR-1)
Rep. Henry Cuellar (TX-28)
Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand (NY-20)
Rep. Gene Green (TX -29)
Rep. John Hall (NY-19)
Rep. Darlene Hooley (OR-5)
Rep. Paul E. Kanjorski (PA-11)
Rep. Kendrick B. Meek (FL-17)
Rep. Stephanie Tubbs Jones (OH-11)
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (TX-16)
Rep. Mike Ross (AR-4)
Rep. Joe Sestak (PA-7)
Rep. Ike Skelton (MO-4)
Rep. John Tanner (TN-8)
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20)
MORE KEY ENDORSEMENTS ANNOUNCED FOR HILLARY
1)Former West Virginia Governor Hulett Smith Endorses Hillary for President."Hillary Clinton is a proven and tested leader who is ready to lead on day one. We need a president with the strength and experience to create good paying jobs here at home, and make small town economies a priority again. Hillary's understanding of the challenges facing working families makes her the right choice for West Virginia," said Governor Smith.
Gov. Smith Endorses Hillary
2) WV Senate Majority Leader Truman Chafin Endorses Hillary.West Virginia State Senate Majority Leader H. Truman Chafin endorsed Hillary Clinton for President today at a "Solutions for America" event with President Bill Clinton in Williamson, West Virginia.
"Hillary Clinton is by far the most qualified, dynamic, exciting, and experienced candidate in the race," said Senator Chafin. "West Virginians are looking for a president who will fight for working families and deliver real solutions. Hillary Clinton is ready to take on the tough challenges we face on day one. I am proud to endorse her candidacy."
Truman Chafin Endorses Hillary
3)Former Democratic Party Chair Sally Richardson Endorses Hillary Clinton for President.(Charleston, WV) - Hillary Clinton continues to gain momentum in West Virginia, earning the endorsements of elected officials and leaders throughout the Mountain State. Today, former Chair of the West Virginia State Democratic Executive Committee Sally Richardson announced her support of Hillary Clinton, becoming the fourth former State Democratic Party Chair to endorse Hillary Clinton for President.
"Senator Clinton is the only candidate in the race with a plan to ensure that every American has quality, affordable health care," said Richardson. "She understands the challenges facing working families and is the candidate who is ready to find real solutions starting day one in the White House."
Sally Richardson Endorses Hillary
4)Massachusetts Superdelegate Author Powell Endorses Hillary.
The Clinton Campaign today announced the support of Massachusetts automatic delegate Arthur Powell, after the Massachusetts State Democratic Committee elected him one if its automatic delegates to the Democratic National Convention.
Superdelegate Arthur Powell Endorses Hillary
Last Evening US Rep. Chris Carney, after months of mulling over who to endorse, finally decided to endorse Hillary Clinton.
In a statement, Carney said he met with Clinton on Wednesday, "and let her know Thursday that I am supporting her."
"We are extremely fortunate to have two very strong candidates vying to lead our nation. Pennsylvania's 10th (Congressional) District (voters) overwhelmingly chose Sen. Clinton in the Pennsylvania primary and I will respect their decision."
On another note: Pa. Senator Bob Casey, an Obama supporter, refused to call for Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race.
*This endorsement was buried in the news. I suppose the media doesn't consider the endorsement important!*
We all know that Hillary is going to win in a landslide in West Virginia, but today she received the endorsement of the Charleston, West Virginia Newspaper. Even in the midst of a media blitz for Clinton to "get out", she continues to receive important endorsements. Text follows:
ENDORSEMENT OF HILLARY CLINTON
A Yale-educated lawyer, a former congressional staffer and former first lady of Arkansas, Hillary Clinton stumbled awkwardly onto the national stage. The Clintons, it was said, did not know the ways of Washington.
She was ridiculed for fashion choices at her husband's inaugural in 1992. She was excoriated for trying to bypass Congress and make health care policy herself.
But Hillary's history is that she keeps going, as she has during this primary campaign.
This trait has produced a broad, deep background in policy. She has been an activist for children, migrant laborers, civil rights, higher standards in education, the Children's Health Insurance Program and more.
She won a U.S. Senate seat in New York in 2000 and was re-elected by a larger margin in 2006. No one questions her readiness for Washington any more.
Now Hillary would be president, and Bill would be not baking the cookies or pouring the tea. Some Americans can't countenance the prospect of another Clinton co-presidency.
Either Democrat will have a tough time this fall against Republican John McCain, whose service, policy experience and bipartisan accomplishments trump Hillary's.
Of the Democrats, though, Hillary would be the stronger candidate.
A WEST VIRGINIA WELCOME
Rasmussen Reports and the polling operation continues to show very good news on a number of fronts for Hillary Clinton.
1) For those who are speculating on a running mate for Obama if or when he wins the nomination, Rasmussen is reporting that the VP slot is Hillary's if she wants it. The report indicates that Obama will not be able to avoid an Obama/Clinton ticket even if he doesn't like the notion of having the Clinton's in the White House once again. The report says that because Hillary will have nearly half of all the delegates (roughly 48%)going into the convention she can claim the VP position going away if she so desires. This could very well explain why she is remaining in the race until June 3.
Click on Video-The VP Spot Belongs to Clinton If She Wants It
2) There are still some arguments to be made in her favor, despite the calls from the media and some politicians for her to drop out. Hillary could get the Michigan and Florida delegation and votes counted which would cut into his delegate and popular vote lead. She has insisted that this must take place before the convention and the bylaws committee will meet on May 31st to vote on their eventual seating arrangements. She could also end up winning or coming very close in the popular vote tally after the final primary is held on June 3 or after the results of the Puerto Rico Primary. Therefore, until the "fat-lady" sings or in this case, until Obama reaches the 2025 or as some have suggested 2209 (counting Florida and Michigan) this race will continue until the "end"
3)The Rasmussen Polling from Kentucky and West Virginia as well as polling by SUSA has indicated that Clinton will win both states by very sizable margins. Polls conducted just prior to the NC/Indiana results show Hillary leading in Kentucky by 25% and in West Virginia by 29%. Although these numbers reflect opinions before the NC/Indiana results, the numbers are likely to remain consistent giving her overwhelming support among White working class voters in these two states.
An MBE (Mark Blankenship Enterprises) poll out of WV also looks ahead to the fall election against the presumptive Republican presidential nominee John McCain. Of the Democrats and independent voters surveyed, Clinton shows up better against McCain in West Virginia. 62% of Democrats and independents indicated they would vote for Clinton over 24% for McCain. In a head to head matchup between Obama and McCain in WV, Obama received 37% support compared to McCain's 35%.
Clinton Does Better Than Obama Against McCain in WV
Clinton is campaigning enthusiastically in both states whereas Obama is staying in Washington to plan his strategy against McCain. Remember that I had said this is not over until the "Fat-Lady" sings or until the Superdelegates indicate they are moving quickly in Obama's direction, which still has not occurred despite the win in NC, where he was expected to win anyway.
Clinton in a landslide in West Virginia
Clinton in a Landslide in Kentucky
4) Despite the Clinton "Doom and Gloom" as depicted by the media, She continues to poll ahead of McCain in a general election matchup 48% to 43%, whereas Obama is tracking at 46% to 44% against McCain. This is the ninth consecutive day that Clinton has outperformed Obama in the general election match-ups.
See Recent Daily Results
Clinton has shown great resiliency and determination in this race despite the enormous pressures and obstacles that have followed her throughout this campaign, and despite the fact that she was outspent by margins of 3, 4 or even 5 to one during these primary contests. Certainly Hillary will go down in history as one of if not the most prolific campaigner in American history, a woman with great fortitude, who never gave in and never gave up. In that respect, she has gained the admiration of Americans across this great land and will be remembered as the candidate who overcame the obstacles and met the challenges head on.
P.S. I'm still hoping she can pull this off somehow as do all of her supporters. We will all be waiting until after June 3 to know for sure.
Hillary has announced today that she is remaining in the race until there is a clear nominee and will take the fight to the convention floor to ensure that the votes of Michigan and Florida are included. Her tenacity to fight on and her commitment to her supporters is the true character of this remarkable woman.
I am in it for the long haul
Hillary Clinton should be given tremendous credit for her victory in Indiana, which was virtually a "come from behind" win in an Obama neighboring state that he proclaimed would be a "tie-breaker". Despite last minute dispicable attempts by the Mayor of Gary, Indiana, An Obama supporter, to hold up the announcement of the projected winner, they just couldn't manufacture the votes to put Obama over the top. The media for their part pretends as though her win in the state she was suppose to lose means nothing, compared to his win in NC which he was expected to win. That gives new meaning to the term pegged by Fox News as "Fair and Balanced Reporting." They must take us Hillary supporters as fools if they think we are going to buy into that analogy.
Now the media and its pundits are at it again,daunting and ridiculing Clinton, even after proving them wrong not once, but four times in this campaign season. With every new primary it is always the same old story from the pundits about Clinton's demise and the hurdles she must overcome with each and every turn.
Clinton was suppose to lose both states
The consensus among those 'so called' experts and analysts was that she needed to win Pa to stay in the race. After her big win in Pa, the pundits then said she had to win Indiana to stay in the race. After she won there, they decided that wasn't good enough, she had to win NC too, even though everyone knew and expected that she couldn't win there because the demographics did not favor her in that state. Remember she was supppose to lose both states, and was once down by more than 20 points in NC, so by moving the goal posts again, they proclaimed that she didn't meet the test and must drop out of the race. Clever psychology by a bunch of ruthless media moguls and 'know it all' nincompoops. Each week it is some other hurdle that she must climb to prove she is a worthy candidate.
With a Split-Decision, the Race Goes On
Fortunately for Hillary and her supporters, the pundits and the media commentators do not vote, in which case their opinions matter little on who will get the nomination. Therefore, this race will continue into West Virginia, Kentucky and all the way to June 3, at which time the DNC and the bylaws committee must decide on the fate of the Michigan and Florida delegates and the popular vote.
THE PATH TO VICTORY
· FL-21: Democrat Raul Martinez Leads Lincoln Diaz-Balart by 2 (HellofaSandwich)
· Richardson to speak at Invesco Field (fbihop)
· West Virginian rebuttal to Sen. Rockefeller DNC08 speech (WVaBlue)
· PUMAs are like the tooth fairy (fbihop)
· Start Preparing Now: Hurricane Gustav Aiming At New Orleans (NickD)
· NRCC Reserves $8.8M in Ad Time in 14 Districts (HellofaSandwich)
· DNC Turns Away Bloggers from Seating Area When Jack Danforth is Sitting There (NickD)
· MN-03: Madia hits the airwaves 'Running' (MN Campaign Report)
· A view from the convention floor (fbihop)
· Tim Pawlenty puts his foot in his mouth (MN Campaign Report)
· Twittering the Democratic National Convention (Jonathan Singer)
· Mark Warner Conference Call: Keynote Speech Preview (lowkell)
